Thursday, May 25, 2006

Another Hurricane in New Orleans?

The forecast gives the city a nearly 30 percent chance of being hit by a hurricane and one in 10 chance the storm will be Category 3 or stronger, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour), said Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Savannah, Georgia, risk assessment firm.

``Given the state of the infrastructure down there and the levees, gosh, that's just not good news. But that's what the climate signals look like,'' Watson said.

Watson, worked in partnership with University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson. They base their forecast in part on the paths of storms over the past 155 years and expected global climate conditions this year.

2 Comments:

Blogger jaime in metairie said...

I'm sorry but that is from a risk assessment firm working with a statistics professor. Not the Hurricane Center or even an actual Meteorologist.

They can't say for certain where a Hurricane will go for sure in 7, 5 3 or 1 day forecasts. They get closer as time goes by but usually still don't peg it. These guys are predicting strength and exact path on storms that don't exist yet? Get a grip. In New Orleans there is certainly Murphy's Law to worry about this year but something like this is insane.

FYI - New Orleans is not and never has been on the list of the top 50 cities likely to be struck by a hurricane. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is number 5 and Norfolk, Virginia just dropped off the list this year (ranked 51). There is a whole lot of Florida between those but no New Orleans.

12:00 AM  
Blogger adiloren said...

I hope a another hurricane doesn't hit- but it is better to be prepared for the possibility. Of course they can't be certain a hurricane will hit New Orleans. The story nearly says that the predicted weather conditions this year make New Orleans one of the more likely spots for a hurricane.

Your rankings of cities most likely to be hit is a general one. This forecast is tailored specificallly for the expected weather patterns this season.

"Of 28 coastal cities evaluated under the forecast model, New Orleans ranked top with a 29.3 percent chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds in the 2006 storm season.
Other top candidates include Mobile, Alabama, with a 22 percent chance of being buffeted by hurricane-force winds, and the Florida cities of Key West and Pensacola, which both have a 20 percent chance."

7:23 PM  

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